This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 55% to break even | 5%–56% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% | 10.6kicking points |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 55% to break even | 7%–46% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% | 10.1kicking points |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 55% to break even | 22%–61% | 15 points shortwon 40%, needs 55% | 8.5kicking points |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 55% to break even | 5%–56% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% | 10.6kicking points |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 55% to break even | 39%–76% | 4 points betterwon 59%, needs 55% | 7.6kicking points |
| Every game | 11 of 2250%needs 55% to break even | 33%–67% | 5 points shortwon 50%, needs 55% | 8.3kicking points |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 10 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Kicking points in each game against under 8.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Kicking points | Beat 8.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 15 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 10 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 10 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 10 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 0 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 16 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 3 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 12 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 kicking pointsWill Reichard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Fanatics | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even5 of 10 at home | -7.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 extra points madeWill Reichard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -147at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 60% to break even7 of 10 at home | -9.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 field goals madeWill Reichard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -170at Fanatics | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even7 of 10 at home | -10.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 field goals madeWill Reichard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +148at DraftKings | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 40% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -24.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 extra points madeWill Reichard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +120at BetMGM | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 45% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -27.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.