This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% | 3field goals made |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 40% to break even | 7%–46% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% | 2.7field goals made |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 40% to break even | 13%–48% | 14 points shortwon 27%, needs 40% | 2.3field goals made |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% | 3field goals made |
| Last season | 5 of 1729% |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 10 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Field goals made in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Field goals made | Beat 1.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 15%–49% |
| 11 points shortwon 29%, needs 40% |
| 1.9field goals made |
| Every game | 6 of 2227%needs 40% to break even | 15%–45% | 13 points shortwon 27%, needs 40% | 2.2field goals made |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| -170at Fanatics |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even7 of 10 at home |
| -10.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +105at Fanatics |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even5 of 10 at home |
| -7.9Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 extra points madeWill Reichard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -147at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 60% to break even7 of 10 at home | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 extra points madeWill Reichard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +120at BetMGM | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 45% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -27.3Not beating its price |
| Under 8.5 kicking pointsWill Reichard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetMGM | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 55% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -27.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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