This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 224.2passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% | 199.4passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 53% to break even | 39%–78% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 200.7passing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 53% to break even | 22%–78% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 222.7passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 10 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 226 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 12th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1). How MIA defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 218.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 218.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 39%–78% |
| 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| 201.7passing yards |
| Every game | 12 of 2157%needs 53% to break even | 40%–73% | 5 points betterwon 57%, needs 53% | 207.7passing yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 252 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 182 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 119 | +99.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 321 | -102.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 247 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 215 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 176 | +42.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 201 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 116 | +102.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 165 | +53.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 285 | -66.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 238 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 143 | +75.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 284 | -65.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 67 | +151.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 174 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 228 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 117 | +101.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 289 | -70.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 180 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 362 | -143.5 | Lost | |
| -180at Fanatics |
| 4 of 6· this season67%needs 64% to break even4 of 10 at home |
| Record is this season's |
| -27.7Not beating its price |
| Over 203.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -192at BetOnline | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 66% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -32.1Not beating its price |
| Over 209.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -142at DraftKings | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 59% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -26.4Not beating its price |
| Over 213.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -147at BetOnline | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 60% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -27.1Not beating its price |
| Over 215.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 55% to break even4 of 10 at home | -27.2Not beating its price |
| Over 218.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 at home | -25.8Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even4 of 10 at home | -25.3Not beating its price |
| Over 220.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at Fanatics | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 51% to break even4 of 10 at home | -24.3Not beating its price |
| Over 221.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 at home | -26.2Not beating its price |
| Over 223.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 at home | -26.0Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 49% to break even4 of 10 at home | -22.4Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +115at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 47% to break even4 of 10 at home | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Over 233.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +107at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 48% to break even4 of 10 at home | -23.0Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +146at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 41% to break even3 of 10 at home | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 243.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +131at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 43% to break even3 of 10 at home | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +190at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 34% to break even2 of 10 at home | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Over 253.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +159at BetOnline | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 39% to break even2 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -25.8Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +232at DraftKings | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 30% to break even2 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Over 263.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +194at BetOnline | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 34% to break even2 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +102at DraftKings |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 at home |
| -7.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even8 of 10 at home | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +900at Fanatics | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 10% to break even0 of 10 at home | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +260at BetMGM | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 28% to break even4 of 10 at home | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +215at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last season40%needs 32% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 65% to break even6 of 10 at home | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Under 229.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 232.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 231.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +144at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 41% to break even4 of 10 at home | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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