This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 53% to break even | 22%–61% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 53% to break even | 22%–78% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 6 of 1540%needs 53% to break even | 22%–61% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 223.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 223.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 252 | +28.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 199.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 20.5 completionsGeno Smith |
| 27%–60% |
| 10 points shortwon 43%, needs 53% |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 182 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 119 | -104.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 321 | +97.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 247 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 215 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 176 | -47.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 201 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 116 | -107.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 165 | -58.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 285 | +61.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 238 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 143 | -80.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 284 | +60.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 67 | -156.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 174 | -49.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 228 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 117 | -106.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 289 | +65.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 180 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 362 | +138.5 | Won |
| +152at Kalshi |
| 8 of 15· last season53%needs 40% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.9Not beating its price |
| Under 215.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Under 220.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Under 221.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -15.8Not beating its price |
| Under 222.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetOnline | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Under 223.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 56% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +101at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even |
| -7.3Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 64% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 pass attemptsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last season60%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -128at FanDuel | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.2Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 pass attemptsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even | -21.2Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -102at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 50% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at BetOnline | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -23.1Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 42% to break even | -25.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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