This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 64% to break even | 27%–86% | 4 points shortwon 60%, needs 64% | 224.2passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 64% to break even | 27%–73% | 14 points shortwon 50%, needs 64% | 199.4passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 64% to break even | 33%–72% | 11 points shortwon 53%, needs 64% | 200.7passing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 64% to break even | 35%–88% | 2 points betterwon 67%, needs 64% | 222.7passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 10 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 226 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 12th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1). How MIA defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 199.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 199.5 by | Bet |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 28%–67% |
| 18 points shortwon 47%, needs 64% |
| 201.7passing yards |
| Every game | 11 of 2152%needs 64% to break even | 35%–69% | 12 points shortwon 52%, needs 64% | 207.7passing yards |
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 252 | +52.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 182 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 119 | -80.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 321 | +121.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 247 | +47.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 215 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 176 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 201 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 116 | -83.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 165 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 285 | +85.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 238 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 143 | -56.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 284 | +84.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 67 | -132.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 174 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 228 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 117 | -82.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 289 | +89.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 180 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 362 | +162.5 | Won | |
| +152at Kalshi |
| 8 of 15· last season53%needs 40% to break even6 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.9Not beating its price |
| Under 215.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even6 of 10 at home | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 218.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -15.8Not beating its price |
| Under 220.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -125at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 56% to break even6 of 10 at home | -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 221.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Under 223.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even6 of 10 at home | -17.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +102at DraftKings |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 at home |
| -7.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even8 of 10 at home | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +900at Fanatics | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 10% to break even0 of 10 at home | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +260at BetMGM | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 28% to break even4 of 10 at home | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +215at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last season40%needs 32% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 65% to break even6 of 10 at home | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Under 229.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 232.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 231.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 pass + rush yardsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +144at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 41% to break even4 of 10 at home | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 pass attemptsGeno Smith · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last season60%needs 49% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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