This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 34% to break even | 0%–35% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% | 1.8receptions |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 617%needs 34% to break even | 4%–50% | 17 points shortwon 17%, needs 34% | 1.5receptions |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 617%needs 34% to break even | 4%–50% | 17 points shortwon 17%, needs 34% | 1.5receptions |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 34% to break even | 4%–50% | 17 points shortwon 17%, needs 34% | 1.5receptions |
| Every game | 1 of 617% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: SF allows 11 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 15th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5). How SF defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 4%–50% |
| 17 points shortwon 17%, needs 34% |
| 1.5receptions |
| 1 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| -270at FanDuel |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 73% to break even |
| -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +178at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 36% to break even | 1.4Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -106at FanDuel |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even |
| 2.6Slight |
| Over 4.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -128at FanDuel | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 56% to break even | 0.1Slight |
| Scores a TDZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +950at FanDuel | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 10% to break even | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +169at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 37% to break even | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +200at BetOnline | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 33% to break even | -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 62% to break even | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +132at BetOnline | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 43% to break even | -23.5Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -106at DraftKings | 1 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped17%needs 51% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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