This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 56% to break even | 65%–100% | 44 points betterwon 100%, needs 56% | 11receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 683%needs 56% to break even | 50%–96% | 27 points betterwon 83%, needs 56% | 9.2receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 683%needs 56% to break even | 50%–96% | 27 points betterwon 83%, needs 56% | 9.2receiving yards |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 56% to break even | 50%–96% | 27 points betterwon 83%, needs 56% | 9.2receiving yards |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: SF allows 137.8 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How SF defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Every game | 5 of 683%needs 56% to break even | 50%–96% | 27 points betterwon 83%, needs 56% | 9.2receiving yards |
| 7 |
| +2.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 2 | 14 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| -106at DraftKings |
| 1 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped17%needs 51% to break even |
| -26.9Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 62% to break even | -23.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +178at FanDuel |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 36% to break even |
| 1.4Slight |
| Scores a TDZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +950at FanDuel | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 10% to break even | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 receptionsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -270at FanDuel | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 73% to break even | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 receptionsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +194at FanDuel | 1 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped17%needs 34% to break even | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsZachariah Branch · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -185at BetOnline | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 65% to break even | -30.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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