This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 36% to break even | 44%–95% | 44 points betterwon 80%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 667%needs 36% to break even | 35%–88% | 31 points betterwon 67%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 667%needs 36% to break even | 35%–88% | 31 points betterwon 67%, needs 36% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 36% to break even | 35%–88% | 31 points betterwon 67%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 4 of 667%needs 36% to break even | 35%–88% | 31 points betterwon 67%, needs 36% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 39% to break even | -7.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsZachariah Branch · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 66% to break even | -25.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.