This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 50% to break even | 5%–56% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 50% to break even | 13%–56% | 20 points shortwon 30%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 50% to break even | 22%–61% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 50% to break even | 4%–50% | 34 points shortwon 17%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 5 of 1242%needs 50% to break even | 22%–64% | 9 points shortwon 42%, needs 50% |
| Every game |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 receptionsGeorge Kittle |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 18%–53% |
| 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 50% |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 7 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 8 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 9 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 0 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| -110at Bovada |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -8.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +124at Kalshi |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even |
| -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 68.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 12· last season67%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Over 67.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -115at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -191at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -168at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 63% to break even | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 12· last season50%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 43% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -110at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Under 68.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 12· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.5Not beating its price |
| Under 67.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -115at BetRivers | 8 of 12· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 35% to break even | -26.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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