This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 8 of 1267%needs 53% to break even | 43%–84% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 68.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 68.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 69 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 receptionsGeorge Kittle |
| 37%–73% |
| 2 points betterwon 56%, needs 53% |
| 24 |
| +44.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 70 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 82 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 80 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 12 | +56.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 6 | +62.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 29 | +39.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 115 | -46.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 88 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 67 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 78 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 67 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 84 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 32 | +36.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 43 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +68.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 25 | +43.5 | Won |
| -168at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 63% to break even |
| -20.3Not beating its price |
| Over 67.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -115at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 68.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -110at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 43% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 35% to break even | -26.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at Bovada |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -8.1Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -102at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 50% to break even | -28.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 6 of 12· last season50%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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