This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 53% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 4 of 1233%needs 53% to break even | 16%–57% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 68.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 68.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 69 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 receptionsGeorge Kittle |
| Every game | 8 of 1844%needs 53% to break even | 27%–63% | 9 points shortwon 44%, needs 53% |
| 24 |
| -44.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 70 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 82 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 80 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 12 | -56.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 6 | -62.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 29 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 115 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 88 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 67 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 78 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 67 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 84 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 32 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 43 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 0 | -68.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 25 | -43.5 | Lost |
| +119at Kalshi |
| 6 of 12· last season50%needs 46% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -22.0Not beating its price |
| Under 67.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -115at BetRivers | 8 of 12· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Under 68.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 12· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.5Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 12· last season67%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -191at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at Bovada |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -8.1Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -102at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 50% to break even | -28.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 6 of 12· last season50%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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