This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 46% to break even | 5%–56% | 26 points shortwon 20%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 46% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 46% to break even | 17%–54% | 12 points shortwon 33%, needs 46% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 46% to break even | 12%–65% | 12 points shortwon 33%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 6 of 1250%needs 46% to break even | 29%–71% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
| Every game |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 59.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 59.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 69 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 receptionsGeorge Kittle |
| 27%–63% |
| 1 points shortwon 44%, needs 46% |
| 24 |
| +35.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 70 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 82 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 80 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 12 | +47.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 6 | +53.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 29 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 115 | -55.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 88 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 67 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 78 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 67 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 84 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 32 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 43 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +59.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 25 | +34.5 | Won |
| -168at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 63% to break even |
| -20.3Not beating its price |
| Over 67.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -115at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 68.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 43% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 35% to break even | -26.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at Bovada |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -8.1Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +114at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 47% to break even | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -102at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 50% to break even | -28.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDGeorge Kittle · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -137at Kalshi | 6 of 12· last season50%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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