This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 57% to break even | 14%–73% | 17 points shortwon 40%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 57% to break even | 13%–56% | 27 points shortwon 30%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 57% to break even | 28%–67% | 10 points shortwon 47%, needs 57% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 57% to break even | 12%–65% | 24 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 6 of 1250%needs 57% to break even | 29%–71% | 7 points shortwon 50%, needs 57% |
| Every game |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsDrake London |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 27%–63% |
| 12 points shortwon 44%, needs 57% |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 9 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 7 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 9 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 8 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 8 | +2.5 | Won |
| +198at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 34% to break even |
| -7.0Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +112at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 47% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even | -22.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -161at Kalshi |
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 62% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -5.6Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 6 of 12· last season50%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 99.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 39% to break even | -16.1Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 47% to break even | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Under 84.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Under 82.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.8Not beating its price |
| Under 81.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Over 84.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Over 82.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Over 81.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 receiving yardsDrake London · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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