This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 19% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 19% to break even | 0%–35% | 19 points shortwon 0%, needs 19% |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 60%needs 19% to break even | 0%–31% | 19 points shortwon 0%, needs 19% |
| Last 15 games | 0 of 60%needs 19% to break even | 0%–31% | 19 points shortwon 0%, needs 19% |
| This season | 0 of 60%needs 19% to break even | 0%–31% | 19 points shortwon 0%, needs 19% |
| Every game | 0 of 60%needs 19% to break even | 0%–31% | 19 points shortwon 0%, needs 19% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: ATL allows 1.2 touchdowns a game to running backs, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): an easy matchup for this bet. How ATL defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Kaelon Black game, newest first: whether Black scored a touchdown.
This player's other props in the game.
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost |
| +173at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 37% to break even |
| -6.7Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -113at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Under 28.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -135at Fanatics | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 57% to break even | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +124at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 45% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +190at Fanatics | 1 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped17%needs 34% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rush attemptsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +190at Fanatics | 1 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped17%needs 34% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +100at Fanatics | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 50% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -103at Kalshi | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 51% to break even | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -158at FanDuel | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 61% to break even | -23.2Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 53% to break even | -24.3Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 rush attemptsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -135at Fanatics | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 57% to break even | -26.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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