This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 57% to break even | 44%–95% | 23 points betterwon 80%, needs 57% | 21rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 667%needs 57% to break even | 35%–88% | 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 57% | 28.3rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 667%needs 57% to break even | 35%–88% | 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 57% | 28.3rushing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 57% to break even | 35%–88% | 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 57% | 28.3rushing yards |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: ATL allows 77.3 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 8th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): an easy matchup for this bet. How ATL defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 30.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| Every game |
| 4 of 667%needs 57% to break even |
| 35%–88% |
| 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 57% |
| 28.3rushing yards |
| 17 |
| +13.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 2 | 25 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 65 | -34.5 | Lost |
| -158at FanDuel |
| 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 61% to break even |
| -23.2Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 53% to break even | -24.3Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -103at Kalshi | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 51% to break even | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +100at Fanatics | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 50% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +190at Fanatics | 1 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped17%needs 34% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +434at Polymarket |
| 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 19% to break even |
| -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rush attemptsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | +190at Fanatics | 1 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped17%needs 34% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 rush attemptsKaelon Black · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Evans and Samuel | -135at Fanatics | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 57% to break even | -26.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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