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NFLPlayer propRushing yards
Kaelon Black under 24.5 rushing yards
Won3 of 5last 5 games · 60%
Best price+119Kalshi
Price needs45.7%wins to break even
Every game3 of 6this season and last
Trend score-11.6Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 46% to break even | 27%–86% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 650%needs 46% to break even | 22%–78% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 650%needs 46% to break even | 22%–78% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 46% to break even | 22%–78% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
| Every game | 3 of 650%needs 46% to break even | 22%–78% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
Games like tonight
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Kaelon Black under 24.5 rushing yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Rushing yards in each game against under 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) |  -161at Kalshi | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 62% to break even | -23.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 28.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) |  -115at DraftKings | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 53% to break even | -24.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +101at Kalshi | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 50% to break even | -22.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsKaelon Black · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +181at Kalshi | 1 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped17%needs 36% to break even | -18.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.