This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 52% to break even | 27%–86% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% | 23.4rushing and receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 52% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% | 31rushing and receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 52% to break even | 22%–61% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 33.5rushing and receiving yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 52% to break even | 35%–88% | 14 points betterwon 67%, needs 52% | 23.5rushing and receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 10 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 116.5 rushing and receiving yards a game to running backs, the 13th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 120.9). How CLE defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush + rec yards in each game against under 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush + rec yards | Beat 24.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 10%–46% |
| 29 points shortwon 23%, needs 52% |
| 42.1rushing and receiving yards |
| Every game | 7 of 1937%needs 52% to break even | 21%–56% | 16 points shortwon 37%, needs 52% | 36.2rushing and receiving yards |
| 8 |
| +16.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 28 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 6 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 70 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 24 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 105 | -80.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 36 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 47 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 24 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 25 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 34 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 62 | -37.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 82 | -57.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 40 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 50 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| -110at FanDuel |
| 11 of 13· last season85%needs 52% to break even9 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.1Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rush + rec yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -115at DraftKings | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +210at FanDuel |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 32% to break even7 of 10 at home |
| -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +287at DraftKings | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 26% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +650at Fanatics | 2 of 13· last season15%needs 13% to break even1 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -8.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +200at FanDuel | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 33% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +126at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 44% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even1 of 10 at home | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +147at BetOnline | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 40% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -136at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 48% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | +139at BetOnline | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even6 of 10 at home | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -110at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 at home | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 receiving yardsTyjae Spears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 53% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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