This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 65% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 65% to break even | 27%–73% | 15 points shortwon 50%, needs 65% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 65% to break even | 33%–72% | 11 points shortwon 53%, needs 65% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 65% to break even | 35%–88% | 2 points betterwon 67%, needs 65% |
| Last season | 6 of 1638%needs 65% to break even | 21%–58% | 27 points shortwon 38%, needs 65% |
| Every game | 10 of 2245%needs 65% to break even | 29%–62% | 19 points shortwon 45%, needs 65% |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 3 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 69 | -49.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 50 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 37 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 58 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 5 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 46 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 52 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 44 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 38 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 56 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsElic Ayomanor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 15 of 16· last season94%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.2Slight | |
| Over 12.5 receiving yardsElic Ayomanor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsElic Ayomanor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsElic Ayomanor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsElic Ayomanor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsElic Ayomanor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +158at FanDuel | 13 of 16· last season81%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 receptionsElic Ayomanor · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -170at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 63% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.