This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 29pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 51% to break even | 27%–73% | 1 points shortwon 50%, needs 51% | 27.7pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 51% to break even | 28%–67% | 5 points shortwon 47%, needs 51% | 29.5pass attempts |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 51% to break even | 12%–65% | 18 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% | 29.5pass attempts |
| Last season | 7 of 1741% |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 34.3 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 14th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7). How CLE defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against under 30.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 30.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 24%–61% |
| 10 points shortwon 41%, needs 51% |
| 31.8pass attempts |
| Every game | 9 of 2339%needs 51% to break even | 24%–56% | 12 points shortwon 39%, needs 51% | 31.2pass attempts |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 22 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 36 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 31 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 36 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 20 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 32 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 40 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 28 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 29 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 28 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 38 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 42 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 37 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 21 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 38 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 34 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 38 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 39 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 26 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 38 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 33 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 28 | +2.5 | Won | |
| -170at Fanatics |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 63% to break even9 of 12 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -24.7Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at BetOnline | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 52% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 48% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +141at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 41% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +180at BetMGM | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 36% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +224at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 31% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -10.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at BetMGM |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 52% to break even8 of 12 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -6.8Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +529at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 16% to break even2 of 12 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Under 195.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -9.5Not beating its price |
| Under 192.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -9.5Not beating its price |
| Under 196.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 52% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 completionsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +131at DraftKings | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 43% to break even8 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 completionsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at Fanatics | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 51% to break even10 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Under 197.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -130at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 57% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +320at FanDuel | 4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 24% to break even3 of 12 at home | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 completionsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +145at BetOnline | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 41% to break even8 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 8.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | -14.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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