This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 180.6passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% | 179.7passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 53% to break even | 46%–83% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 182.5passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 53% to break even | 50%–96% | 30 points betterwon 83%, needs 53% | 177.3passing and rushing yards |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 238 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4): an easy matchup for this bet. How CLE defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against under 196.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass + rush yards |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 53% to break even | 29%–66% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% | 195.8passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 13 of 2357%needs 53% to break even | 40%–72% | 3 points betterwon 57%, needs 53% | 191passing and rushing yards |
| Beat 196.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 109 | +87.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 172 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 249 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 183 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 190 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 161 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 63 | +133.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 261 | -64.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 237 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 172 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 121 | +75.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 148 | +48.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 293 | -96.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 227 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 151 | +45.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 263 | -66.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 255 | -58.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 222 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 259 | -62.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 130 | +66.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 231 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 183 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 112 | +84.5 | Won | |
| -186at FanDuel |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 65% to break even8 of 12 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -29.4Not beating its price |
| Over 179.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -174at DraftKings | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 64% to break even8 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -28.1Not beating its price |
| Over 189.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -132at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 57% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -29.2Not beating its price |
| Over 192.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -30.7Not beating its price |
| Over 195.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -30.3Not beating its price |
| Over 196.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -30.8Not beating its price |
| Over 197.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at BetRivers | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -30.3Not beating its price |
| Over 199.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +104at FanDuel | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 49% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -27.2Not beating its price |
| Over 209.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +125at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 44% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +160at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 38% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 pass + rush yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +194at FanDuel | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 34% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -15.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at BetMGM |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 52% to break even8 of 12 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -6.8Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +574at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 15% to break even2 of 12 at home | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +224at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 31% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 52% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 completionsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +131at DraftKings | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 43% to break even8 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 completionsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at Fanatics | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 51% to break even10 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +320at FanDuel | 4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 24% to break even3 of 12 at home | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +180at BetMGM | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 36% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 completionsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +145at BetOnline | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 41% to break even8 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 8.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +224at DraftKings | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 31% to break even4 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +280at FanDuel | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 26% to break even2 of 12 at home | -15.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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