This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 63% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 63% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points shortwon 60%, needs 63% | 29pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 63% to break even | 27%–73% | 13 points shortwon 50%, needs 63% | 27.7pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 63% to break even | 33%–72% | 10 points shortwon 53%, needs 63% | 29.5pass attempts |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 63% to break even | 35%–88% | 4 points betterwon 67%, needs 63% | 29.5pass attempts |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 63% to break even | 39%–76% | 4 points shortwon 59%, needs 63% | 31.8pass attempts |
| Every game | 14 of 2361%needs 63% to break even | 44%–76% | 2 points shortwon 61%, needs 63% | 31.2pass attempts |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 9 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 34.3 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 14th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7). How CLE defends quarterbacks
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against over 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 36 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 31 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 36 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 32 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 40 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 38 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 42 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 37 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 38 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 34 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 38 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 39 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 38 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 33 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at BetMGM | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 51% to break even3 of 12 at home | -24.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 31.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even3 of 12 at home | -20.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.