This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 62% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 62% to break even | 14%–73% | 22 points shortwon 40%, needs 62% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 62% to break even | 35%–81% | 2 points shortwon 60%, needs 62% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 62% to break even | 39%–78% | 2 points shortwon 60%, needs 62% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 62% to break even | 14%–73% | 22 points shortwon 40%, needs 62% |
| Last season | 9 of 1656%needs 62% to break even | 36%–74% | 5 points shortwon 56%, needs 62% |
| Every game | 11 of 21 |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 6.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 receptionsJa'Marr Chase |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase |
| 35%–69% |
| 9 points shortwon 52%, needs 62% |
| 3 |
| -3.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 9 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 9 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 10 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 12 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 16 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 10 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 14 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost |
| +128at FanDuel |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even |
| -16.4Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 receptionsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -135at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 57% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +119at Kalshi |
| 10 of 16· last season63%needs 46% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -14.9Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -17.2Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 5 of 16· last season31%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Under 80.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 48% to break even | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Over 75.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -135at Fanatics | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.2Not beating its price |
| Over 80.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.0Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +100at Fanatics | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 50% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.2Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 receiving yardsJa'Marr Chase · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 63% to break even | -26.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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