This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1362%needs 53% to break even | 39%–80% | 8 points betterwon 62%, needs 53% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 5 of 863%needs 53% to break even | 35%–84% | 9 points betterwon 63%, needs 53% |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 263.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 249.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| Every game | 8 of 1362%needs 53% to break even | 39%–80% | 8 points betterwon 62%, needs 53% |
| -18.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 2 | 207 | +56.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 254 | +9.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 236 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 305 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 309 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 225 | +38.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 284 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 261 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 76 | +187.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 113 | +150.5 | Won |
| -154at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 61% to break even |
| -22.3Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Over 260.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 52% to break even | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 262.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even | -23.9Not beating its price |
| Over 263.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even | -24.4Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 47% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -114at DraftKings |
| 6 of 8· last season75%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.7Not beating its price |
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 55% to break even | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 54% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 7 of 8· last season88%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 56% to break even | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 41% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 50% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 52% to break even | -23.3Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even | -25.0Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 54% to break even | -26.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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