This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 44% to break even | 19%–65% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1331%needs 44% to break even | 15%–54% | 13 points shortwon 31%, needs 44% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 1 of 813%needs 44% to break even | 3%–41% | 31 points shortwon 13%, needs 44% |
| Every game |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow |
| 15%–54% |
| 13 points shortwon 31%, needs 44% |
| Won |
| Wk 2 | -1 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 20 | +10.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| -114at DraftKings |
| 6 of 8· last season75%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.7Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 7 of 8· last season88%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -121at Kalshi |
| 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 55% to break even |
| -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 262.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 53% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Under 263.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetRivers | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 53% to break even | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 54% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 56% to break even | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 46% to break even | -17.2Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 41% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Under 274.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 58% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Under 260.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Under 259.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 47% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even | -20.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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