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NFLPlayer propPassing yards
Joe Burrow over 258.5 passing yards
Won5 of 10last 10 games · 50%
Best price-115BetRivers
Price needs53.5%wins to break even
Every game6 of 13this season and last
Trend score-21.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 272.2passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 272passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1346%needs 53% to break even | 26%–68% | 7 points shortwon 46%, needs 53% | 243.8passing yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 272.2passing yards |
| Last season | 4 of 850%needs 53% to break even | 25%–75% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 226.1passing yards |
| Every game | 6 of 1346%needs 53% to break even | 26%–68% | 7 points shortwon 46%, needs 53% | 243.8passing yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 225.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How BAL defends quarterbacks
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Joe Burrow over 258.5 passing yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Passing yards in each game against over 258.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 258.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 |  MIA | 190 | -68.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  JAX | 428 | +169.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  PIT | 282 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  HOU | 207 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  TB | 254 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  CLE | 236 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 |  ARI | 305 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | MIA | 309 | +50.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  BAL | 225 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 |  BUF | 284 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | BAL | 261 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | JAX | 76 | -182.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | CLE | 113 | -145.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 224.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  +198at Kalshi | 4 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped31%needs 34% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -16.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 249.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 44% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -15.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 258.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  -115at BetRivers | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -18.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 260.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  -113at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -18.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 274.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 57% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Joe Burrow in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.