This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 49% to break even | 14%–73% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% | 281.8passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 49% to break even | 27%–73% | 1 points betterwon 50%, needs 49% | 279.8passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1338%needs 49% to break even | 20%–61% | 10 points shortwon 38%, needs 49% | 250.7passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 49% to break even | 14%–73% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% | 281.8passing and rushing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 244 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 13th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4). How BAL defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against over 279.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 16%–65% |
| 11 points shortwon 38%, needs 49% |
| 231.3passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 5 of 1338%needs 49% to break even | 20%–61% | 10 points shortwon 38%, needs 49% | 250.7passing and rushing yards |
| 434 |
| +154.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 295 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 206 | -73.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 274 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 253 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 307 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 315 | +35.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 230 | -49.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 284 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 269 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 76 | -203.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 116 | -163.5 | Lost |
| -115at BetMGM |
| 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 53% to break even3 of 7 on the road |
| -22.9Not beating its price |
| Under 268.5 pass + rush yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetRivers | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 53% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Under 269.5 pass + rush yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 8· last season63%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Under 271.5 pass + rush yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 5 of 8· last season63%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -123at BetOnline |
| 7 of 8· last season88%needs 55% to break even6 of 7 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.1Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +775at BetMGM | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 11% to break even0 of 7 on the road | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +235at BetRivers | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 30% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 37.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 9 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped69%needs 53% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -106at DraftKings | 6 of 8· last season75%needs 51% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -169at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 51% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +380at BetRivers | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 21% to break even0 of 7 on the road | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 54% to break even5 of 7 on the road | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Over 299.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +240at BetRivers | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 29% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 262.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 44% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -15.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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