This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% | 27completions |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 48% to break even | 13%–56% | 18 points shortwon 30%, needs 48% | 26.3completions |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1323%needs 48% to break even | 10%–46% | 25 points shortwon 23%, needs 48% | 23.7completions |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% | 27completions |
| Last season | 1 of 813%needs 48% to break even | 3%–41% | 36 points shortwon 13%, needs 48% | 21.6completions |
| Every game | 3 of 1323%needs 48% to break even | 10%–46% | 25 points shortwon 23%, needs 48% | 23.7completions |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 21.3 completions a game to quarterbacks, the 16th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.5). How BAL defends quarterbacks
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Completions in each game against over 25.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 24.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Bovada | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 49% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -20.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 25.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -123at BetOnline | 7 of 8· last season88%needs 55% to break even6 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.