This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 66% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 66% to break even | 65%–100% | 34 points betterwon 100%, needs 66% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 66% to break even | 44%–87% | 4 points betterwon 70%, needs 66% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 66% to break even | 46%–83% | 1 points betterwon 67%, needs 66% |
| This season | 6 of 6100%needs 66% to break even | 69%–100% | 34 points betterwon 100%, needs 66% |
| Last season | 6 of 1833%needs 66% to break even | 18%–53% | 32 points shortwon 33%, needs 66% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 passing TDsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
| Every game | 12 of 2450%needs 66% to break even | 34%–66% | 16 points shortwon 50%, needs 66% |
| 2 |
| +12.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 6 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +12.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 29 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 49 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 42 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 16 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 8 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | -2 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 36 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | -1 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 48 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 33 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| -126at Kalshi |
| 14 of 18· last season78%needs 56% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -135at Fanatics | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.7Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -110at BetMGM | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.6Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -121at BetRivers | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.6Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -137at Kalshi |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 58% to break even |
| -6.8Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 40% to break even | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Under 215.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Under 220.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Under 221.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at BetOnline | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Under 218.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.7Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.3Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 7 of 18· last season39%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.8Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Over 32.5 pass attemptsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 completionsBo Nix · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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