This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 48% to break even | 27%–86% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 48% to break even | 35%–81% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 48% to break even | 33%–72% | 6 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 48% to break even | 35%–88% | 19 points betterwon 67%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 7 of 1644%needs 48% to break even | 26%–64% | 4 points shortwon 44%, needs 48% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsJaylen Waddle |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 52.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle |
| Every game | 11 of 2250%needs 48% to break even | 33%–67% | 2 points betterwon 50%, needs 48% |
| Wk 5 | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +3.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 0 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| -123at BetOnline |
| 9 of 16· last season56%needs 55% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -26.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at DraftKings |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even |
| -5.6Not beating its price |
| Under 54.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 51.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -118at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 54% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -112at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.6Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -126at Kalshi | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.2Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -122at BetRivers | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.5Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.0Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -115at DraftKings | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.2Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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