This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 55% to break even | 5%–56% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 55% to break even | 7%–46% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 55% to break even | 22%–61% | 15 points shortwon 40%, needs 55% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 55% to break even | 4%–50% | 38 points shortwon 17%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 8 of 1650%needs 55% to break even | 31%–69% | 5 points shortwon 50%, needs 55% |
| Every game |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 51.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 51.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 24 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsJaylen Waddle |
| 26%–58% |
| 14 points shortwon 41%, needs 55% |
| -27.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 19 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 35 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 10 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 138 | +86.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -49.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 0 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 72 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 26 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 50 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 40 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 52 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 84 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 82 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 99 | +47.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 15 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 95 | +43.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 110 | +58.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 48 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 39 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 68 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 30 | -21.5 | Lost |
| -112at Kalshi |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -11.7Not beating its price |
| Under 51.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -118at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 54% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -110at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -5.6Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 54.5 receiving yardsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -6.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +110at DraftKings |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 48% to break even |
| -13.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.6Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsJaylen Waddle · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ETListed questionable | -123at BetOnline | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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