This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 5.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 4.1receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% | 3.9receiving yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 53% to break even | 22%–78% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 4.5receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 8 on the road. Tonight: ARI allows 25.2 receiving yards a game to running backs, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 31.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How ARI defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 5 | -0.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 27%–73% |
| 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| 3.7receiving yards |
| Every game | 8 of 1650%needs 53% to break even | 31%–69% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 4receiving yards |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 12 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +4.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 10 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | -2 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 10 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | -1 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 0 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| -114at FanDuel |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even4 of 8 on the road |
| -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receiving yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | -103at DraftKings | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 51% to break even3 of 8 on the road | -27.2Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 36% to break even1 of 8 on the road | -23.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -175at Kalshi |
| 10 of 10· last season100%needs 64% to break even7 of 8 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -4.8Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last season90%needs 38% to break even5 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.0Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 rush attemptsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last season90%needs 54% to break even5 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Over 48.5 rushing yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last season90%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 rushing yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last season90%needs 50% to break even5 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | +162at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 38% to break even2 of 8 on the road | -16.4Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 62% to break even4 of 8 on the road | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 rushing yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 9 of 10· last season90%needs 53% to break even5 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rush + rec yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 49% to break even4 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 rushing yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | -124at BetRivers | 9 of 10· last season90%needs 55% to break even5 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even3 of 8 on the road | Record is this season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsJ.K. Dobbins · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ET | -174at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 64% to break even6 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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