This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 56% to break even | 27%–86% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 56% to break even | 44%–87% | 14 points betterwon 70%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 56% to break even | 46%–83% | 11 points betterwon 67%, needs 56% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 56% to break even | 35%–88% | 11 points betterwon 67%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 56% to break even | 29%–66% | 9 points shortwon 47%, needs 56% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 56% to break even | 36%–68% | 4 points shortwon 52%, needs 56% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2Q total points in each game against under 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2Q total points | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 13 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 20 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 13 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 24 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 9 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 3 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 9 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 20 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 23 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 24 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 18 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 20 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | 3 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 23 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 24 | -10.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 2nd quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -175at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 64% to break even | -25.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 13.5 2nd quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +101at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 2nd quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +134at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.