This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 65% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 65% to break even | 27%–73% | 15 points shortwon 50%, needs 65% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 65% to break even | 28%–67% | 18 points shortwon 47%, needs 65% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 65% to break even | 35%–88% | 2 points betterwon 67%, needs 65% |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 65% to break even | 19%–55% | 29 points shortwon 35%, needs 65% |
| Every game |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsJaylen Warren |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 28%–60% |
| 21 points shortwon 43%, needs 65% |
| 2 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| +134at Kalshi |
| 11 of 17· last season65%needs 43% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 60% to break even | -9.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -107at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even |
| -3.3Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -109at DraftKings | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -110at BetOnline | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -116at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +173at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 99.5 rush + rec yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 64.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -113at BetRivers | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 rush attemptsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +105at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Under 63.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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