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NFLPlayer propRushing yards
Jaylen Warren under 49.5 rushing yards
Won8 of 17last season · 47%
Best price+159Kalshi
Price needs38.6%wins to break even
Every game10 of 23this season and last
Trend score-17.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 39% to break even | 5%–56% | 19 points shortwon 20%, needs 39% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 39% to break even | 13%–56% | 9 points shortwon 30%, needs 39% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 39% to break even | 22%–61% | 1 points betterwon 40%, needs 39% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 39% to break even | 12%–65% | 5 points shortwon 33%, needs 39% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 39% to break even | 29%–66% | 8 points betterwon 47%, needs 39% |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 39% to break even | 28%–60% | 5 points betterwon 43%, needs 39% |
Games like tonight
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Jaylen Warren under 49.5 rushing yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Rushing yards in each game against under 49.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 49.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  TB | 50 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  IND | 101 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  CLE | 93 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  CIN | 127 | -77.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  NE | 43 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  ATL | 46 | +3.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 |  HOU | 43 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 |  BAL | 66 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | CLE | 64 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  DET | 143 | -93.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 |  MIA | 33 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | BAL | 13 | +36.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  BUF | 35 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  CHI | 68 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | CIN | 62 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 |  LAC | 70 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | IND | 31 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 |  GB | 62 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | CIN | 127 | -77.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | CLE | 52 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | NE | 47 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  SEA | 48 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  NYJ | 37 | +12.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Jaylen Warren in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) |  +101at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even | -1.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 26.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) |  -109at DraftKings | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 25.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) |  -110at BetOnline | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -116at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 receptionsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -154at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 61% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +134at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 99.5 rush + rec yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -148at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 13.5 rush attemptsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 16.5 rush attemptsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 13.5 rush attemptsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 99.5 rush + rec yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +109at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 48% to break even | -25.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJaylen Warren · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.