This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 53% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 6 of 1638%needs 53% to break even | 21%–58% | 16 points shortwon 38%, needs 53% |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 11 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receptionsPat Freiermuth |
| Every game | 10 of 2245%needs 53% to break even | 29%–62% | 8 points shortwon 45%, needs 53% |
| -18.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 44 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 30 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 32 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 46 | +16.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 18 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 51 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 63 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 45 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 9 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 33 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 13 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 111 | +81.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 11 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 6 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 31 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost |
| +198at Kalshi |
| 7 of 16· last season44%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.7Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +134at Kalshi | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.2Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at BetOnline | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Under 32.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -113at DraftKings | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -191at Kalshi | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -154at Kalshi |
| 14 of 16· last season88%needs 61% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -14.3Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -165at BetMGM | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 41% to break even | -21.3Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +134at FanDuel | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 43% to break even | Record is this season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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