This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 51% to break even | 19%–65% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 51% to break even | 28%–67% | 4 points shortwon 47%, needs 51% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 51% to break even | 12%–65% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 10 of 1663%needs 51% to break even | 42%–79% | 12 points betterwon 63%, needs 51% |
| Every game |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 11 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receptionsPat Freiermuth |
| 38%–71% |
| 4 points betterwon 55%, needs 51% |
| +18.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 44 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 17 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 32 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 46 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 18 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 51 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 63 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 20 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 45 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 9 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 19 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 19 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 33 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 27 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 13 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 111 | -81.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 11 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 6 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 31 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 28 | +1.5 | Won |
| -183at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 65% to break even |
| -26.2Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -19.0Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -111at BetMGM | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -24.4Not beating its price |
| Over 32.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -111at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even | -30.3Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 41% to break even | -22.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -154at Kalshi |
| 14 of 16· last season88%needs 61% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -14.3Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -165at BetMGM | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 41% to break even | -21.3Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsPat Freiermuth · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +134at FanDuel | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 43% to break even | Record is this season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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