This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 6 of 1638%needs 53% to break even | 21%–58% | 16 points shortwon 38%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 74.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 74.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsChris Olave |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 receptionsChris Olave · |
| 10 of 2245%needs 53% to break even |
| 29%–62% |
| 8 points shortwon 45%, needs 53% |
| 43 |
| -31.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 46 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 116 | +41.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 107 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 86 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 182 | +107.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 119 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 148 | +73.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 85 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 30 | -44.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 47 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 70 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 104 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 57 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 63 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 98 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 98 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 59 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 20 | -54.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 57 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 54 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 54 | -20.5 | Lost |
| +159at Kalshi |
| 8 of 16· last season50%needs 39% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.6Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +119at Kalshi | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.4Not beating its price |
| Under 72.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -110at DraftKings | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.9Not beating its price |
| Under 74.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.8Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.6Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -131at Kalshi | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.4Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -191at Kalshi | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 44% to break even |
| -10.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 35% to break even | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -133at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 57% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +116at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 46% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -155at BetMGM | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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