This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 52% to break even | 13%–56% | 22 points shortwon 30%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 52% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 52% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 52% to break even | 12%–65% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 10 of 1663%needs 52% to break even | 42%–79% | 10 points betterwon 63%, needs 52% |
| Every game |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 72.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 72.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsChris Olave |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 receptionsChris Olave · |
| 38%–71% |
| 2 points betterwon 55%, needs 52% |
| 43 |
| +29.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 46 | +26.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 116 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 107 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 86 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 182 | -109.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 119 | -46.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 148 | -75.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 85 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 30 | +42.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 47 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 70 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 104 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 57 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 63 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 98 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 98 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 59 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 20 | +52.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 57 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 54 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 54 | +18.5 | Won |
| -148at Kalshi |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 60% to break even |
| -20.8Not beating its price |
| Over 72.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -114at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 74.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Over 75.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +101at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 50% to break even | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +146at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 41% to break even | -16.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 44% to break even |
| -10.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 35% to break even | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -133at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 57% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +116at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 46% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsChris Olave · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -155at BetMGM | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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