This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 55% to break even | 44%–95% | 25 points betterwon 80%, needs 55% | 253.2passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 55% to break even | 35%–81% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% | 236.1passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 55% to break even | 28%–67% | 8 points shortwon 47%, needs 55% | 217.5passing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 55% to break even | 35%–88% | 12 points betterwon 67%, needs 55% | 247.8passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 10 on the road. Tonight: NO allows 256 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): an easy matchup for this bet. How NO defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 225.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 19%–55% |
| 19 points shortwon 35%, needs 55% |
| 204passing yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 55% to break even | 28%–60% | 11 points shortwon 43%, needs 55% | 215.4passing yards |
| Beat 225.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 253 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 235 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 299 | +73.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 292 | +66.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 187 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 221 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 146 | -79.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 294 | +68.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 168 | -57.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 266 | +40.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 224 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 284 | +58.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 117 | -108.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 116 | -109.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 161 | -64.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 203 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 219 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 249 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 235 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 200 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 139 | -86.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 203 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 244 | +18.5 | Won | |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 35% to break even4 of 10 on the road |
| -17.5Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +109at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 48% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Under 225.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -110at Fanatics | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 52% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Under 229.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Under 231.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -113at DraftKings | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.2Not beating its price |
| Under 235.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -140at BetMGM | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 58% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.3Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -175at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 64% to break even6 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -107at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 on the road |
| -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even6 of 10 on the road | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +108at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 48% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Under 34.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 51% to break even5 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -116at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 54% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -110at DraftKings | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 52% to break even6 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -121at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 55% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.2Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +101at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 completionsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -131at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 57% to break even5 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 rushing yardsAaron Rodgers · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -140at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 58% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -23.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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