This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 51% to break even | 27%–86% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 51% to break even | 27%–73% | 1 points shortwon 50%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 51% to break even | 33%–72% | 2 points betterwon 53%, needs 51% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 51% to break even | 22%–78% | 1 points shortwon 50%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 12 of 1963%needs 51% to break even | 44%–79% | 12 points betterwon 63%, needs 51% |
| Every game | 15 of 2560%needs 51% to break even | 44%–74% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 43, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 38.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 1st quarter totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 65 |
| -22 |
| Lost |
| Oct 11 | 29 | +14 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 64 | -21 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 36 | +7 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 26 | +17 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 67 | -24 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 18 | 44 | -1 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 36 | +7 | Won |
| Jan 4 | 68 | -25 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | 36 | +7 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 44 | -1 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | 60 | -17 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 30 | +13 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 36 | +7 | Won |
| Nov 20 | 42 | +1 | Won |
| Nov 16 | 29 | +14 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 65 | -22 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 33 | +10 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 41 | +2 | Won |
| Oct 20 | 46 | -3 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 54 | -11 | Lost |
| Sep 28 | 26 | +17 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 27 | +16 | Won |
| Sep 15 | 39 | +4 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 23 | +20 | Won |
| 10 of 19· last season53%needs 65% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -31.6Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 60% to break even | -28.0Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 57% to break even | -26.4Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even | -24.4Not beating its price |
| Over 43 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | LVG-107at LowVig | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price |
| Over 43.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 49% to break even | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | -23.3Not beating its price |
| Over 45.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 44% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Over 46.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.8Not beating its price |
| Over 48.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +177at Polymarket | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -16.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 35% to break even |
| -9.4Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 14 of 19· last season74%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 1st half team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 1st half team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 3rd quarter totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 37% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 1st half totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 1st half totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 12 of 19· last season63%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 1st half totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 19· last season42%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 14 of 19· last season74%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.4Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 3rd quarter totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 7 of 19· last season37%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.6Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 2nd quarter totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 45% to break even | -16.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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