This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | 22rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 38% to break even | 35%–81% | 22 points betterwon 60%, needs 38% | 32.9rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 38% to break even | 33%–72% | 16 points betterwon 53%, needs 38% | 26.9rushing yards |
| This season | 0 of 30%needs 38% to break even | 0%–47% | 38 points shortwon 0%, needs 38% | 13rushing yards |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 38% to break even | 39%–76% | 21 points betterwon 59%, needs 38% | 25.7rushing yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2050%needs 38% to break even | 33%–67% | 12 points betterwon 50%, needs 38% | 23.8rushing yards |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 10 on the road. Tonight: HOU allows 75.8 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 6th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): a tough matchup for this bet. How HOU defends running backs
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 14 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 9 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 26 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 45 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 47 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 68 | +48.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 47 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 44 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 43 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 0 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 2 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 28 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 11 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 4 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 9 | -10.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.