This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 49% to break even | 27%–86% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% | 23.4completions |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 49% to break even | 19%–65% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% | 21.4completions |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 49% to break even | 17%–54% | 15 points shortwon 33%, needs 49% | 20.1completions |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 49% to break even | 35%–88% | 18 points betterwon 67%, needs 49% | 23.8completions |
| Last season |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 10 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 20.2 completions a game to quarterbacks, the 9th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYG defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Completions in each game against over 22.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Completions | Beat 22.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 16%–52% |
| 18 points shortwon 31%, needs 49% |
| 19.6completions |
| Every game | 9 of 2241%needs 49% to break even | 26%–58% | 8 points shortwon 41%, needs 49% | 20.8completions |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 24 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 26 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 30 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 26 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 20 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 14 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 23 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 22 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 15 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 22 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 6 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 30 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 23 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 23 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 22 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 25 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 13 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 19 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| -105at BetOnline |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 51% to break even4 of 10 at home |
| -20.6Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 completionsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -140at BetMGM | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 58% to break even6 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -20.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +145at Fanatics |
| 11 of 16· last season69%needs 41% to break even5 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +625at Kalshi | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 14% to break even1 of 10 at home | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 299.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +320at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 24% to break even3 of 10 at home | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -124at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +189at Kalshi | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 35% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +280at FanDuel | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 26% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Over 289.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +210at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 32% to break even3 of 10 at home | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -110at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -15.7Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -109at DraftKings | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 52% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 274.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -168at Kalshi | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 63% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price |
| Under 268.5 pass + rush yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Over 248.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -114at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -16.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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