This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 32% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 32% to break even | 27%–86% | 28 points betterwon 60%, needs 32% | 288passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 32% to break even | 13%–56% | 2 points shortwon 30%, needs 32% | 258.9passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 32% to break even | 8%–41% | 12 points shortwon 20%, needs 32% | 239.6passing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 32% to break even | 22%–78% | 18 points betterwon 50%, needs 32% | 285.7passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 10 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 198.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 4th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYG defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 289.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 289.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 1%–24% |
| 26 points shortwon 6%, needs 32% |
| 218.9passing yards |
| Every game | 4 of 2218%needs 32% to break even | 8%–35% | 14 points shortwon 18%, needs 32% | 237.1passing yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 312 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 261 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 347 | +57.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 167 | -122.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 353 | +63.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 274 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 212 | -77.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 250 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 169 | -120.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 244 | -45.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 187 | -102.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 260 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 203 | -86.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 276 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 79 | -210.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 318 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 229 | -60.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 244 | -45.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 233 | -56.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 204 | -85.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 207 | -82.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 188 | -101.5 | Lost | |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 8 of 16· last season50%needs 35% to break even4 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -15.0Not beating its price |
| Under 248.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -117at BetRivers | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 54% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -24.0Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +105at Kalshi | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 49% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -19.8Not beating its price |
| Under 255.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -111at DraftKings | 13 of 16· last season81%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 260.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -115at BetMGM | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 53% to break even6 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Under 274.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -175at Kalshi | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 64% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +145at Fanatics |
| 11 of 16· last season69%needs 41% to break even5 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +625at Kalshi | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 14% to break even1 of 10 at home | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -124at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +180at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +280at FanDuel | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 26% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -109at DraftKings | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 52% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 268.5 pass + rush yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Over 299.5 pass + rush yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +194at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 34% to break even3 of 10 at home | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 32.5 pass attemptsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +105at BetMGM | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 49% to break even6 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Over 8.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -120at BetMGM | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 55% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 261.5 pass + rush yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -114at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -103at BetOnline | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 51% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -19.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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