This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 54% to break even | 65%–100% | 46 points betterwon 100%, needs 54% | 35.2receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 54% to break even | 65%–98% | 36 points betterwon 90%, needs 54% | 38.2receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 54% to break even | 59%–92% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% | 38.4receiving yards |
| This season | 6 of 6100%needs 54% to break even | 69%–100% | 46 points betterwon 100%, needs 54% | 36receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 6 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 147.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 15th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3). How CAR defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 47.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 47.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 37 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 6 of 967%needs 54% to break even |
| 40%–86% |
| 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% |
| 40receiving yards |
| Every game | 12 of 1580%needs 54% to break even | 59%–92% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% | 38.4receiving yards |
| 37 |
| +10.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 31 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 25 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 46 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 40 | +7.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 8 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 108 | -60.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 30 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 20 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 55 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 78 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 9 | +38.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 26 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 26 | +21.5 | Won |
| -140at Fanatics |
| 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 58% to break even2 of 6 on the road |
| -34.3Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -33.3Not beating its price |
| Over 46.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -111at DraftKings | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -35.2Not beating its price |
| Over 47.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -113at BetRivers | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -35.5Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +116at FanDuel | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 46% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -30.5Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +119at BetOnline | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 46% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -30.0Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +188at FanDuel | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 35% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.6Not beating its price |
| Over 64.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +168at BetOnline | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 37% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -25.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +100at DraftKings |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 50% to break even4 of 6 on the road |
| -3.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +271at Polymarket | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 27% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +188at FanDuel | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 35% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -22.8Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -106at FanDuel | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 51% to break even2 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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