This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 57% to break even | 5%–56% | 37 points shortwon 20%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 57% to break even | 13%–56% | 27 points shortwon 30%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 57% to break even | 17%–54% | 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 57% to break even | 12%–65% | 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 3 of 933%needs 57% to break even | 14%–60% | 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
| Every game |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 39.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin Jr. |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsChris Godwin Jr. |
| 17%–54% |
| 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
| 31 |
| -8.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 25 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 46 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 40 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 8 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 108 | +68.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 20 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 55 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 78 | +38.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 9 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 26 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 26 | -13.5 | Lost |
| +109at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 48% to break even |
| -4.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -126at Kalshi |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 56% to break even |
| -7.5Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsChris Godwin Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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