This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 53% to break even | 65%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 35.2receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 53% to break even | 65%–98% | 37 points betterwon 90%, needs 53% | 38.2receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 53% to break even | 59%–92% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 38.4receiving yards |
| This season | 6 of 6100%needs 53% to break even | 69%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 36receiving yards |
| Last season | 6 of 967%needs 53% to break even | 40%–86% | 14 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 40receiving yards |
| Every game | 12 of 1580%needs 53% to break even | 59%–92% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 38.4receiving yards |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 6 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 147.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 15th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3). How CAR defends wide receivers
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 46.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 46.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 37 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 37 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 31 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 25 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 46 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 40 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 8 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 108 | -61.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 30 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 20 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 55 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 78 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 9 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 26 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 26 | +20.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -140at Fanatics | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 58% to break even2 of 6 on the road | -34.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 44.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -33.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 46.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -111at DraftKings | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -35.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 47.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -113at BetRivers | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -35.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +116at FanDuel | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 46% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -30.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 54.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +119at BetOnline | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 46% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -30.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +188at FanDuel | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 35% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 64.5 receiving yardsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +168at BetOnline | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 37% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -25.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +100at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 50% to break even4 of 6 on the road | -3.2Not beating its price | ||
| Scores a TDChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +271at Polymarket | 2 of 9· last season22%needs 27% to break even1 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 5.5 receptionsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +188at FanDuel | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 35% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -22.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 4.5 receptionsChris Godwin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -106at FanDuel | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 51% to break even2 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.