This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 51% to break even | 0%–35% | 51 points shortwon 0%, needs 51% | 40.2pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 51% to break even | 19%–65% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 35.6pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 51% to break even | 33%–72% | 2 points betterwon 53%, needs 51% | 33pass attempts |
| This season | 0 of 50%needs 51% to break even | 0%–35% | 51 points shortwon 0%, needs 51% | 40.2pass attempts |
| Last season | 14 of 1782%needs 51% to break even | 63%–93% | 31 points betterwon 82%, needs 51% | 30.5pass attempts |
| Every game | 14 of 2264%needs 51% to break even | 46%–78% | 12 points betterwon 64%, needs 51% | 32.7pass attempts |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 10 at home. Tonight: TB allows 35.8 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 10th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7): a tough matchup for this bet. How TB defends quarterbacks
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against under 35.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 35.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 39 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 41 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 48 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 36 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 37 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 40 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 35 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 24 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 32 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 24 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 20 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 29 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 45 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 25 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 20 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 25 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 25 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 30 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 30 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 24 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 55 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 35 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -185at Fanatics | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 65% to break even3 of 10 at home | -23.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 59% to break even3 of 10 at home | -18.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 35.5 pass attemptsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even3 of 10 at home | -19.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 37.5 pass attemptsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +139at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 42% to break even2 of 10 at home | -20.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 39.5 pass attemptsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +218at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 31% to break even2 of 10 at home | -16.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.