This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 27% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 27% to break even | 0%–35% | 27 points shortwon 0%, needs 27% | 5rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 27% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points betterwon 40%, needs 27% | 14.4rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 27% to break even | 17%–54% | 6 points betterwon 33%, needs 27% | 13.1rushing yards |
| This season | 0 of 50%needs 27% to break even | 0%–35% | 27 points shortwon 0%, needs 27% | 5rushing yards |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 27% to break even | 19%–55% | 8 points betterwon 35%, needs 27% | 14.1rushing yards |
| Every game | 6 of 2227%needs 27% to break even | 15%–45% | evenwon 27%, needs 27% | 12rushing yards |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 10 at home. Tonight: TB allows 8.3 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 4th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 17.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How TB defends quarterbacks
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 6 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 6 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 24 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | -1 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 27 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 49 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | -1 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 6 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 9 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 5 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 1 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 40 | +20.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even5 of 10 at home | -16.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 at home | -13.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 10.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -108at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even6 of 10 at home | -7.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 14.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 65% to break even6 of 10 at home | -17.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.