This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 42% to break even | 27%–86% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% | 40.2pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 42% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% | 35.6pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 42% to break even | 17%–54% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 42% | 33pass attempts |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 42% to break even | 27%–86% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% | 40.2pass attempts |
| Last season |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 10 at home. Tonight: TB allows 35.8 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 10th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7): an easy matchup for this bet. How TB defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against over 37.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 37.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 7%–37% |
| 24 points shortwon 18%, needs 42% |
| 30.5pass attempts |
| Every game | 6 of 2227%needs 42% to break even | 15%–45% | 15 points shortwon 27%, needs 42% | 32.7pass attempts |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 39 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 41 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 48 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 36 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 37 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 40 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 35 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 24 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 32 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 24 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 20 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 29 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 45 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 25 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 20 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 25 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 25 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 30 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 30 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 24 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 55 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 35 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| +105at Kalshi |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 49% to break even7 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.6Not beating its price |
| Under 35.5 pass attemptsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at BetMGM | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 51% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -14.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +750at DraftKings |
| 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 12% to break even4 of 10 at home |
| -2.8Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 36% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -108at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even6 of 10 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 completionsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 47% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -7.8Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +169at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 37% to break even2 of 10 at home | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +265at FanDuel | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 27% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 completionsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at BetOnline | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 51% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +103at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 49% to break even3 of 10 at home | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +150at Fanatics | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 40% to break even2 of 10 at home | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 263.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +101at BetOnline | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 50% to break even3 of 10 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 pass + rush yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +121at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 45% to break even3 of 10 at home | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 at home | -13.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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