This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 44% to break even | 27%–73% | 6 points betterwon 50%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 44% to break even | 33%–72% | 10 points betterwon 53%, needs 44% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 44% to break even | 12%–65% | 10 points shortwon 33%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 10 of 1567%needs 44% to break even | 46%–83% | 23 points betterwon 67%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 12 of 2157%needs 44% to break even | 40%–73% | 13 points betterwon 57%, needs 44% |
Tonight MISS plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TEX. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H margin in each game against miss 2h -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2H margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 10 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | -13 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | -9 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 17 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | -9 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 15 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 38 | +37.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.